And now you know the rest of the story.

 Brian who must be as  frustrated as I am with the high water conditions, asked the best question. What will be the effect of the proposed increased flows during the aqueduct repair?  Didn't look it up but my recollection of the 2015 "leak panic" was that they did a test boring for construction of a proposed hydro generator and had the misfortune of drilling right into a fault in the rock that has been leaking since the dam was built. When the water surged up out of the drill hole they made the decision to maximize the release and thus drain the reservoir. I think this started in early July (and this is important) because the current release is scheduled to start on June first which quite possibly makes a huge difference in the effects of the drawdown on the fishery..

Why? The reservoir releases come from below the thermocline (think of it as a Plexiglas layer separating the densest coldest water from the less dense warmer water). Once the thermocline sets up, the cold  water beneath it can not be replaced. During the course of most summers the releases use up the water beneath the thermocline sometime in late August or early September. The water starts to take on a gray color, the water temp rises and the sulfur hatches up in Deposit come to an end.   

In 2015 the draw down began early in July. The 1,500 cfs nonstop releases of cold water kept the bugs hatching and fish feeding all the way down to Callicoon throughout the month of July. There were sulfur hatches on the BR  and stenos hatched during the daytime hours. Wading was difficult or impossible in most places but the boat fishing was very good. The releases were cut back to 500cfs in early August and fishing returned to normal.

This year's proposed release is somewhat different. It will start June 1st and continue until the reservoirs are drawn down by 30%. How long this will take is dependent on the amount of rainfall. Once  the water beneath the thermocline is exhausted, released water will become warmer and siltier and the tailwater "effect" will be lost. I do not know how long it takes to deplete the water beneath the thermocline with releases of 1,500 cfs but for sure it will be three times faster than with the 500 cfs releases we are accustomed to getting. 

And then? Assuming the sub thermocline water is used up sometime in mid July and that the reservoir has been drawn down the required 30%, what happens? NYC EPA hasn't said.  For sure the releases will be cut back. Since the goal is to have the reservoirs at the 30% drawdown level on October 1st, one possibility would be to have the releases match the inflow for the period  between when they reach the 30% drawdown level and October 1st. Hopefully this doesn't happen as having releases match low summer inflows could result in massive fish kills. The second possibility, which most people assume will be used, is a reactivation of the FFMP which would call for 500cfs to be released until September. The release will no doubt be warmer but will still cool the WB and provide a thermal refuge at junction pool. Have found nothing to say if the releases aimed at keeping the water temp at Lordville  from exceeding 75 degrees will still be made.

The fishing? Saw a few boats, bugs, and rising fish with four wade fisherman giving it a go on the Willow. The streams are dropping but would drop a lot faster if the rain system would move off and we got a little sunshine.

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